Maldives vs Lakshadweep: What is the controversy?

A diplomatic spat with the Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, began on January 4th as a result of social media posts made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi showcasing the splendor of Lakshadweep's beaches. Three junior ministers from the Maldives, a nation that mostly depends on tourism at its own beaches, swiftly criticized the Indian prime minister. This prompted demands on Indian social media users to shun the Maldives as a travel destination.

The conversation underscores the tension that has existed between India and the Maldives since the election of Mohamed Muizzu as the country's new president. Muizzu has called for the withdrawal of Indian troops from the Maldives and the adoption of a more independent foreign policy that would involve strengthening ties with China. On the surface, the incident may appear to be a small social media feud.

USIP Visiting Expert Nilanthi Samaranayake examines the potential implications of the most recent disagreement for the Maldives' relationship with China and the US as well as the connections between the island nation and India after Muizzu's victory.

What potential effects on the economy and diplomacy can the Maldives' present conflicts with India have?

If the remarks made by the ministers cause Indian nationals to decide not to travel to the Maldives, it could have a huge negative economic impact. India was the main source of tourists visiting the Maldives in 2023, but Indian nationals had alternative holiday options. Considering the Maldives' reliance on tourism for economic growth and the necessity to increase foreign exchange reserves for debt servicing, the ministers' remarks were not only foolish from a business perspective but also incredibly unacceptable for serving officials to make.

However, India may also experience some negative consequences. The majority of flights from India to the Maldives are run by Indian-owned airlines, according to local observers.

Officials from both nations will decide how this would affect relations diplomatically. Policymakers in both nations have an incentive to show leadership by swiftly settling the conflict and allowing it to not disrupt diplomatic ties for the remaining five years of President Mohamed Muizzu's administration.

As part of its "Neighborhood First" policy, the Indian government has worked to preserve good relations with the Maldives despite public anger over the recent scandal in India. How does India's plan to maintain the Maldives inside its sphere of influence change in light of this occurrence and a newly elected government that is more broadly pro-China?

During a crucial moment in bilateral ties, the Maldives made an unintentional mistake that resulted in this event. It is unclear, meanwhile, if India has implemented its Neighborhood First policy with the current leadership in the way intended.

The prior leader of the Maldives, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, placed a strong emphasis on "India first" in international relations. But the electorate has chosen a leader from a different party who seeks to increase the nation's independence in security operations and expand its options for foreign policy. While his campaign commitment will lead to the termination of the Maldives' aerial security cooperation agreement with India, Muizzu also declared early in his term that he still intended to maintain close ties with India. The president of the Maldives is pressing the military forces to develop stronger capabilities for carrying out their operations, which would presumably soon involve hydrography. The Maldives and India have an agreement for hydrography security cooperation, but it ends in mid-December, and Muizzu decided not to renew it.

Considering the Maldives' defense strategy during the previous 15 years, these recent events show a dramatic change in the country. Though the situation may be best understood as representing a smaller state's unease with a renewed era of strategic rivalry, a desire to broaden its range of partnerships, and an atmosphere of heightened nationalism, the leadership shift is sometimes presented as a zero-sum, pro-China turn. This will be an experiment since the Maldives' security forces will need more capability to carry out independent missions including hydrography, medical evacuation, and marine surveillance. Given its vast sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean, it would not be shocking if the Maldives eventually requested a fresh security support package from India. Muizzu has expressed his wish for All nations, including India and other allies like the US and Japan, should fund the Maldives' defense needs.

Although the "India Out" campaign rhetoric was depressing for New Delhi, India favors diversification in its foreign policy and defense purchasing decisions, thus it makes sense that the Maldives would want more independence. Surprisingly, this changed circumstances may actually provide New Delhi with a chance to show how it can modify its security cooperation and diplomatic approach in accordance with the Neighborhood First and Security and Growth for All in the Region policies to a new political government in a smaller South Asian neighbor.

But it's unclear if Indian officials are honoring Muizzu's desire for redefining parameters of relationship with India after his campaign as president-elect and president. First, unlike Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who attended Solih's 2018 inauguration, Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju was assigned to represent India at Muizzu's inauguration in November. Second, Muizzu stated that, in accordance with tradition, his first official travel overseas would be to India as president-elect. However, no specific information regarding New Delhi's openness to an early visit has surfaced. Rather, Muizzu made his first state visit to China in January after making his first formal journey to Turkey in November.

Luckily for their bilateral relations, Modi and Muizzu were able to get together early in December in the United Arab Emirates during the COP28 summit. In their short meeting, they managed to form a high-level core group to deliberate on bilateral matters, including development cooperation and India's request to remove its security forces from the Maldives by March 15. This deadline falls ahead of the upcoming parliament election, when the Maldivian Democratic Party, the opposition party, is now in the majority. The speed with which New Delhi accepts Muizzu's invitation to visit the country will reveal much about the future of bilateral ties as well as India's readiness to modify its Neighborhood First strategy in order to further its larger strategic objectives.

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For U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, what does the Maldives' decision to abandon its "India First" policy mean?

The US seems to be concentrating on strengthening its own ties with the Maldives and is not participating in the contentious Maldives-India discussion. Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, attended Muizzu's inauguration and, by all accounts, had a great visit, capping a strong year for the two countries' overall bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, it would be prudent for American policymakers to monitor changes in the Maldives-Indian relationship. The Maldives are not mentioned in the White House's well-known "Indo-Pacific Strategy" document from 2022, which makes repeated references to India and outlines in its action plan how the US will back India's leadership in the area. If ties between the Maldives and India continue to be tight, this posture will have an impact on the U.S.-Maldives relationship.

Although the Maldives were left out of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" publication, the US actively collaborates on policy with the Maldives in a number of areas. As it analyzes U.S. interests in the Indian Ocean and wider Indo-Pacific in 2024, Washington will want to keep an eye on these connections and be on the lookout for ways to be a helpful partner to both nations during this critical juncture in Maldives-India relations. In the upcoming "Indo-Pacific Strategy," more may be done to match US policy toward the Maldives with US strategy throughout the region.